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Vissel Kobe vs Suwon Bluewings — AFC Champions League 2018

Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobeadvanced
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Suwon Bluewings
Suwon Bluewings
12/10/2020AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Quarter-finalsAl Janoub Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Vissel Kobe44%
×Draw25%
Suwon Bluewings32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vissel Kobe
1.56
Suwon Bluewings
1.29

Vissel Kobe creates 21% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 10 away

creates per match

Vissel Kobe
2.22
Suwon Bluewings
1.70

allows per match

Vissel Kobe
0.89
Suwon Bluewings
0.90

finishing

Vissel Kobe+0.00on par
Suwon Bluewings+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vissel Kobe ↓

Suwon Bluewings →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Vissel Kobe or draw
68%
Vissel Kobe or Suwon Bluewings
75%
Draw or Suwon Bluewings
56%

Winning margin

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+
22%
Suwon Bluewings wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals
79%
Vissel Kobe 2+ goals
46%
Vissel Kobe 3+ goals
21%
Suwon Bluewings 1+ goals
72%
Suwon Bluewings 2+ goals
37%
Suwon Bluewings 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)
58%
Suwon Bluewings (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vissel Kobe at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Suwon Bluewings away — creates 1.70, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vissel Kobe attack 2.22 + Suwon Bluewings defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.56

Suwon Bluewings attack 1.70 + Vissel Kobe defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vissel Kobe scores more
44%
level
25%
Suwon Bluewings scores more
32%

Vissel Kobe at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Vissel Kobe 1–1 Suwon Bluewings

Vissel Kobe and Suwon Bluewings drew 1-1 in AFC Champions League on December 10, 2020.

The match was played at Al Janoub Stadium in Al Wakrah.