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Suwon Bluewings vs Vissel Kobe — AFC Champions League 2018

Suwon Bluewings
Suwon Bluewings
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobe
2/19/2020AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 2Suwon World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Suwon Bluewings36%
×Draw24%
Vissel Kobe39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suwon Bluewings
1.45
Vissel Kobe
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

creates per match

Suwon Bluewings
1.75
Vissel Kobe
1.54

allows per match

Suwon Bluewings
1.50
Vissel Kobe
1.15

finishing

Suwon Bluewings+0.00on par
Vissel Kobe+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suwon Bluewings ↓

Vissel Kobe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Suwon Bluewings or draw
61%
Suwon Bluewings or Vissel Kobe
76%
Draw or Vissel Kobe
64%

Winning margin

Suwon Bluewings wins by 2+
17%
Vissel Kobe wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Suwon Bluewings 1+ goals
77%
Suwon Bluewings 2+ goals
42%
Suwon Bluewings 3+ goals
18%
Vissel Kobe 1+ goals
78%
Vissel Kobe 2+ goals
45%
Vissel Kobe 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Suwon Bluewings (draw refunded)
48%
Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suwon Bluewings at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Vissel Kobe away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suwon Bluewings attack 1.75 + Vissel Kobe defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.45

Vissel Kobe attack 1.54 + Suwon Bluewings defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Suwon Bluewings scores more
36%
level
24%
Vissel Kobe scores more
39%

Vissel Kobe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Suwon Bluewings vs Vissel Kobe

Vissel Kobe beat Suwon Bluewings 1-0 in AFC Champions League on February 19, 2020.

The match was played at Suwon World Cup Stadium in Suwon.