Vissel Kobe 3–2 Nagoya Grampus: Result & Stats

Vissel Kobe

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Nagoya Grampus

4/11/2026

J1 League · Round 10Noevir Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Vissel Kobe52%

×Draw22%

Nagoya Grampus26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vissel KobeExpected goals in this matchNagoya Grampus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.33

Vissel Kobe

1.95

Nagoya Grampus

1.33

Vissel Kobe creates 47% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.34

creates per match

1.77

0.89

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Vissel Kobe

2.34

Nagoya Grampus

1.77

allows per match

Vissel Kobe

0.89

Nagoya Grampus

1.56

+0.66scores more than expected

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

Vissel Kobe+0.66scores more

Nagoya Grampus-0.17scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vissel Kobe ↓

Nagoya Grampus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Vissel Kobe or draw

74%

Vissel Kobe or Nagoya Grampus

78%

Draw or Nagoya Grampus

48%

Winning margin

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+

30%

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals

86%

Vissel Kobe 2+ goals

58%

Vissel Kobe 3+ goals

31%

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals

74%

Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals

38%

Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)

66%

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vissel Kobe at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.89 · 5 matches

Nagoya Grampus away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.56 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vissel Kobe attack 2.34 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.95

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.77 + Vissel Kobe defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vissel Kobe scores more

52%

level

22%

Nagoya Grampus scores more

26%

Vissel Kobe at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff