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Nagoya Grampus vs Vissel Kobe — J1 League 2018

Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobe
2/22/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 2Toyota Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

Nagoya Grampus40%
×Draw26%
Vissel Kobe34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nagoya Grampus
1.35
Vissel Kobe
1.23

Nagoya Grampus creates 10% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 148 away

creates per match

Nagoya Grampus
1.35
Vissel Kobe
1.42

allows per match

Nagoya Grampus
1.05
Vissel Kobe
1.34

finishing

Nagoya Grampus+0.00on par
Vissel Kobe+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nagoya Grampus ↓

Vissel Kobe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nagoya Grampus or draw
66%
Nagoya Grampus or Vissel Kobe
74%
Draw or Vissel Kobe
60%

Winning margin

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+
18%
Vissel Kobe wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals
74%
Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals
39%
Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals
15%
Vissel Kobe 1+ goals
71%
Vissel Kobe 2+ goals
35%
Vissel Kobe 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)
54%
Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nagoya Grampus at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.05 · 150 matches

Vissel Kobe away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.34 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.35 + Vissel Kobe defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Vissel Kobe attack 1.42 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nagoya Grampus scores more
40%
level
26%
Vissel Kobe scores more
34%

Nagoya Grampus at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nagoya Grampus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nagoya Grampus vs Vissel Kobe

Nagoya Grampus and Vissel Kobe drew 2-2 in J1 League on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at Toyota Stadium in Toyota City.