Vissel Kobe 0–1 Kashiwa Reysol: Result & Stats

Vissel Kobe

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kashiwa Reysol

3/2/2024

J1 League · Round 2NOEVIR Stadium Kobe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Vissel Kobe46%

×Draw24%

Kashiwa Reysol30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vissel KobeExpected goals in this matchKashiwa Reysol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.33

Vissel Kobe

1.71

Kashiwa Reysol

1.33

Vissel Kobe creates 29% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.34

creates per match

1.77

0.89

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Vissel Kobe

2.34

Kashiwa Reysol

1.77

allows per match

Vissel Kobe

0.89

Kashiwa Reysol

1.08

+0.66scores more than expected

finishing

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

Vissel Kobe+0.66scores more

Kashiwa Reysol+0.23scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vissel Kobe ↓

Kashiwa Reysol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Vissel Kobe or draw

70%

Vissel Kobe or Kashiwa Reysol

76%

Draw or Kashiwa Reysol

54%

Winning margin

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+

25%

Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals

82%

Vissel Kobe 2+ goals

51%

Vissel Kobe 3+ goals

24%

Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals

74%

Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals

38%

Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)

61%

Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vissel Kobe at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.89 · 5 matches

Kashiwa Reysol away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.08 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vissel Kobe attack 2.34 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.71

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.77 + Vissel Kobe defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vissel Kobe scores more

46%

level

24%

Kashiwa Reysol scores more

30%

Vissel Kobe at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff