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Kashiwa Reysol vs Vissel Kobe — J1 League 2018

Kashiwa Reysol
Kashiwa Reysol
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobe
5/31/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 19Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Kashiwa Reysol35%
×Draw26%
Vissel Kobe39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kashiwa Reysol
1.31
Vissel Kobe
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 135 home / 148 away

creates per match

Kashiwa Reysol
1.29
Vissel Kobe
1.42

allows per match

Kashiwa Reysol
1.37
Vissel Kobe
1.34

finishing

Kashiwa Reysol+0.00on par
Vissel Kobe+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashiwa Reysol ↓

Vissel Kobe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kashiwa Reysol or draw
61%
Kashiwa Reysol or Vissel Kobe
74%
Draw or Vissel Kobe
65%

Winning margin

Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+
15%
Vissel Kobe wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals
73%
Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals
38%
Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals
14%
Vissel Kobe 1+ goals
75%
Vissel Kobe 2+ goals
41%
Vissel Kobe 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)
47%
Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashiwa Reysol at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.37 · 135 matches

Vissel Kobe away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.34 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.29 + Vissel Kobe defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Vissel Kobe attack 1.42 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kashiwa Reysol scores more
35%
level
26%
Vissel Kobe scores more
39%

Vissel Kobe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Kashiwa Reysol 1–3 Vissel Kobe

Vissel Kobe beat Kashiwa Reysol 3-1 in J1 League on May 31, 2025.

The match was played at Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium in Kashiwa.