Vissel Kobe 2–0 Gwangju FC: Result & Stats

Vissel Kobe

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Gwangju FC

H. Ide 29'

Y. Osako 20'

3/5/2025

AFC Champions League · Round of 16NOEVIR Stadium Kobe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Vissel Kobe74%

×Draw16%

Gwangju FC9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vissel KobeExpected goals in this matchGwangju FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.36

0.70

Vissel Kobe

2.36

Gwangju FC

0.70

Vissel Kobe creates 237% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 6 away

2.22

creates per match

0.50

0.89

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Vissel Kobe

2.22

Gwangju FC

0.50

allows per match

Vissel Kobe

0.89

Gwangju FC

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vissel Kobe+0.00on par

Gwangju FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vissel Kobe ↓

Gwangju FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Vissel Kobe or draw

91%

Vissel Kobe or Gwangju FC

84%

Draw or Gwangju FC

26%

Winning margin

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+

51%

Gwangju FC wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals

90%

Vissel Kobe 2+ goals

68%

Vissel Kobe 3+ goals

41%

Gwangju FC 1+ goals

50%

Gwangju FC 2+ goals

16%

Gwangju FC 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)

89%

Gwangju FC (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vissel Kobe at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Gwangju FC away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vissel Kobe attack 2.22 + Gwangju FC defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.36

Gwangju FC attack 0.50 + Vissel Kobe defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Vissel Kobe scores more

74%

level

16%

Gwangju FC scores more

9%

Vissel Kobe at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Y. Osako

Vissel Kobe · F

8.5

Match Events

13'

Yuya Osako

20'

Y. Osako

29'

H. Ide↳ Y. Osako

46'

Oh Hu-Seong← Kim Han-Gil

46'

Park In-Hyeok← Park Jeong-In

62'

Jin Si-Woo← Byeon Jun-Soo

78'

K. Yamauchi← N. Iino

79'

Jin Si-Woo

79'

Cho Seong-Gwon← Lee Min-Gi

79'

Ju Se-Jong← Lee Kang-Hyun

89'

K. Hamasaki← H. Ide

89'

R. Matsuda← R. Hirose

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VisselGwangju

Overview

48%Possession52%

12Total Shots10

2Corners4

19Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots10

4On Target0

7Off Target6

1Blocked4

8Inside Box5

4Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

400Total Passes450

329Accurate Passes366

82%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1