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Gwangju FC vs Vissel Kobe — AFC Champions League 2018

Gwangju FC
Gwangju FCadvanced
AET
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobe
J. Asani 118', 85' (pen)
Park Jeong-In 18'
3/12/2025AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Round of 16Gwangju World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gwangju FC53%
×Draw21%
Vissel Kobe27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwangju FC
2.20
Vissel Kobe
1.52

Gwangju FC creates 45% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

creates per match

Gwangju FC
3.25
Vissel Kobe
1.54

allows per match

Gwangju FC
1.50
Vissel Kobe
1.15

finishing

Gwangju FC+0.00on par
Vissel Kobe+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwangju FC ↓

Vissel Kobe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Gwangju FC or draw
73%
Gwangju FC or Vissel Kobe
79%
Draw or Vissel Kobe
47%

Winning margin

Gwangju FC wins by 2+
32%
Vissel Kobe wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Gwangju FC 1+ goals
89%
Gwangju FC 2+ goals
64%
Gwangju FC 3+ goals
37%
Vissel Kobe 1+ goals
78%
Vissel Kobe 2+ goals
45%
Vissel Kobe 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Gwangju FC (draw refunded)
67%
Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwangju FC at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Vissel Kobe away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwangju FC attack 3.25 + Vissel Kobe defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 2.20

Vissel Kobe attack 1.54 + Gwangju FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gwangju FC scores more
53%
level
21%
Vissel Kobe scores more
27%

Gwangju FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gwangju FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

55
Park Tae-JunGwangju FCGwangju FC · M
8.3

Match Events

18'
Yuya Kuwasaki
18'
Park Jeong-In↳ Park Tae-Jun
27'
Daiju Sasaki
36'
Sang-ki Min
56'
Y. Muto← T. Miyashiro
60'
Takahiro Ogihara
67'
Park In-Hyeok← Park Jeong-In
69'
Erik← Y. Kuwasaki
69'
Y. Ideguchi← H. Ide
77'
Ju Se-Jong← Lee Kang-Hyun
83'
Se-jong JuPenalty confirmed
85'
J. AsaniPenalty
90+2'
Yuya Osako
102'
K. Yamauchi← D. Sasaki
112'
Bruno Oliveira← Min Sang-Gi
116'
Choi Kyoung-Rok← Oh Hu-Seong
118'
J. Asani↳ Choi Kyoung-Rok
119'
Jasir Asani

Possession

60%Gwangju

Shots

21Gwangju

Pass accuracy

54%Gwangju

Statistics

GwangjuVissel
Overview
60%Possession40%
21Total Shots16
9Corners3
25Fouls31
Shots
21Total Shots16
9On Target1
5Off Target10
7Blocked5
9Inside Box8
12Outside Box8
Passing
60%Possession40%
580Total Passes373
461Accurate Passes253
79%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
25Fouls31
2Yellow Cards4
4Offsides1

Match Recap: Gwangju FC vs Vissel Kobe

Gwangju FC beat Vissel Kobe 2-0 in AFC Champions League on March 12, 2025.

Goals: Park Jeong-In (18'), J. Asani (85' pen, 118').

Gwangju FC controlled possession (60%) and registered 21 shots to 16.

The match was played at Gwangju World Cup Stadium in Gwangju.