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Vissel Kobe vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobe
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
11/28/2020AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 4Al Janoub Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Vissel Kobe67%
×Draw21%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vissel Kobe
1.91
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
0.68

Vissel Kobe creates 181% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

creates per match

Vissel Kobe
2.22
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
0.47

allows per match

Vissel Kobe
0.89
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.59

finishing

Vissel Kobe+0.00on par
Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vissel Kobe ↓

Guangzhou Evergrande FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vissel Kobe or draw
87%
Vissel Kobe or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
79%
Draw or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
33%

Winning margin

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+
41%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals
85%
Vissel Kobe 2+ goals
57%
Vissel Kobe 3+ goals
30%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
49%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
15%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)
84%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vissel Kobe at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vissel Kobe attack 2.22 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.91

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.47 + Vissel Kobe defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Vissel Kobe scores more
67%
level
21%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
13%

Vissel Kobe at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Vissel Kobe 0–2 Guangzhou Evergrande FC

Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Vissel Kobe 2-0 in AFC Champions League on November 28, 2020.

The match was played at Al Janoub Stadium in Al Wakrah.