Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1–3 Vissel Kobe

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Vissel Kobe

11/25/2020

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 3Khalifa International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC26%

×Draw23%

Vissel Kobe50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guangzhou Evergrande FCExpected goals in this matchVissel Kobe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.77

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.21

Vissel Kobe

1.77

Vissel Kobe creates 46% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 13 away

1.28

creates per match

1.54

2.00

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.28

Vissel Kobe

1.54

allows per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

2.00

Vissel Kobe

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Vissel Kobe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓

Vissel Kobe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or draw

50%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Vissel Kobe

77%

Draw or Vissel Kobe

74%

Winning margin

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+

11%

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals

70%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals

34%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals

12%

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals

83%

Vissel Kobe 2+ goals

53%

Vissel Kobe 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)

34%

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 1.28, concedes 2.00 · 18 matches

Vissel Kobe away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.28 + Vissel Kobe defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Vissel Kobe attack 1.54 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more

26%

level

23%

Vissel Kobe scores more

50%

Vissel Kobe at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff