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Vissel Kobe vs Consadole Sapporo — J1 League 2024

Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobe
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Consadole Sapporo
Consadole Sapporo
Y. Muto 90+5', 43'
T. Yamakawa 72'
T. Miyashiro 49', 24'
Y. Osako 8'
Y. Ideguchi 73' (OG)
3/30/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 5NOEVIR Stadium Kobe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Vissel Kobe58%
×Draw23%
Consadole Sapporo19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vissel Kobe
1.81
Consadole Sapporo
0.94

Vissel Kobe creates 93% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 21 away

creates per match

Vissel Kobe
1.53
Consadole Sapporo
1.10

allows per match

Vissel Kobe
0.78
Consadole Sapporo
2.10

finishing

Vissel Kobe+0.00on par
Consadole Sapporo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vissel Kobe ↓

Consadole Sapporo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vissel Kobe or draw
81%
Vissel Kobe or Consadole Sapporo
77%
Draw or Consadole Sapporo
42%

Winning margin

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+
33%
Consadole Sapporo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals
84%
Vissel Kobe 2+ goals
54%
Vissel Kobe 3+ goals
27%
Consadole Sapporo 1+ goals
61%
Consadole Sapporo 2+ goals
24%
Consadole Sapporo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)
75%
Consadole Sapporo (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vissel Kobe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.78 · 49 matches

Consadole Sapporo away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vissel Kobe attack 1.53 + Consadole Sapporo defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.81

Consadole Sapporo attack 1.10 + Vissel Kobe defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Vissel Kobe scores more
58%
level
23%
Consadole Sapporo scores more
19%

Vissel Kobe at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
T. MiyashiroVissel KobeVissel Kobe · M
9.9

Match Events

8'
Y. Osako↳ T. Miyashiro
24'
T. Miyashiro↳ R. Hirose
35'
Toya Nakamura
43'
Y. Muto
44'
Takahiro Ogihara
46'
R. Hatsuse← Y. Honda
46'
S. Sarachat← R. Takao
47'
Tetsushi Yamakawa
49'
T. Miyashiro
61'
N. Iino← R. Hirose
64'
Y. Ideguchi← T. Ohgihara
64'
K. Hara← T. Nakamura
70'
T. Hasegawa← Y. Asano
70'
R. Aoki← Y. Kobayashi
71'
S. Omori← M. Suzuki
72'
T. Yamakawa↳ R. Hatsuse
73'
Y. IdeguchiOwn goal
82'
R. Kikuchi← Y. Osako
82'
K. Yamauchi← T. Miyashiro
90+5'
Y. Muto↳ N. Iino

Possession

38%Vissel

Shots

25Vissel

Pass accuracy

46%Vissel

Statistics

VisselConsadole
Overview
38%Possession62%
25Total Shots5
3.83Expected Goals (xG)0.65
6Corners1
9Fouls12
Shots
25Total Shots5
12On Target0
11Off Target4
2Blocked1
20Inside Box2
5Outside Box3
Passing
38%Possession62%
330Total Passes558
220Accurate Passes445
67%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
0Saves7
Discipline
9Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1
3Offsides3

Match Recap: Vissel Kobe vs Consadole Sapporo

Vissel Kobe beat Consadole Sapporo 6-1 in J1 League on March 30, 2024.

Goals: Y. Osako (8'), T. Miyashiro (24', 49'), Y. Muto (43', 90+5'), T. Yamakawa (72'), Y. Ideguchi (73' o.g.).

Consadole Sapporo controlled possession (62%) and registered 5 shots to 25.

The match was played at NOEVIR Stadium Kobe in Kobe.