Vissel Kobe 1–1 Consadole Sapporo: Result & Stats

Vissel Kobe

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Consadole Sapporo

Matheus Thuler 85'

S. Sarachat 26'

7/1/2023

J1 League · Round 19NOEVIR Stadium Kobe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Vissel Kobe58%

×Draw23%

Consadole Sapporo19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vissel KobeExpected goals in this matchConsadole Sapporo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.94

Vissel Kobe

1.81

Consadole Sapporo

0.94

Vissel Kobe creates 93% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 21 away

1.53

creates per match

1.10

0.78

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Vissel Kobe

1.53

Consadole Sapporo

1.10

allows per match

Vissel Kobe

0.78

Consadole Sapporo

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vissel Kobe+0.00on par

Consadole Sapporo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vissel Kobe ↓

Consadole Sapporo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Vissel Kobe or draw

81%

Vissel Kobe or Consadole Sapporo

77%

Draw or Consadole Sapporo

42%

Winning margin

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+

33%

Consadole Sapporo wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals

84%

Vissel Kobe 2+ goals

54%

Vissel Kobe 3+ goals

27%

Consadole Sapporo 1+ goals

61%

Consadole Sapporo 2+ goals

24%

Consadole Sapporo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)

75%

Consadole Sapporo (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vissel Kobe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.78 · 49 matches

Consadole Sapporo away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vissel Kobe attack 1.53 + Consadole Sapporo defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.81

Consadole Sapporo attack 1.10 + Vissel Kobe defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Vissel Kobe scores more

58%

level

23%

Consadole Sapporo scores more

19%

Vissel Kobe at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

D. Maekawa

Vissel Kobe · G

8.2

Match Events

26'

S. Sarachat

46'

Y. Osako← K. Yuruki

48'

Jean Patric

54'

Yuya AsanoPenalty cancelled

57'

D. Sasaki← Andrés Iniesta

60'

T. Nakamura← H. Miyazawa

71'

N. Iino← Jean Patrick

80'

L. Osaki← M. Saito

81'

Kim Gun-Hee← S. Sarachat

85'

Matheus Thuler↳ R. Hatsuse

87'

K. Fukai← Lucas Fernandes

87'

Y. Kobayashi← Y. Asano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VisselConsadole

Overview

47%Possession53%

14Total Shots21

2Corners4

5Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots21

3On Target7

5Off Target7

6Blocked7

11Inside Box16

3Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

392Total Passes451

276Accurate Passes319

70%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

5Fouls15

1Yellow Cards0

0Offsides2