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Vissel Kobe vs Chiangrai United — AFC Champions League 2018

Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobe
FT
6 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Chiangrai United
Chiangrai United
4/22/2022AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 3Chang Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Vissel Kobe68%
×Draw19%
Chiangrai United13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vissel Kobe
2.11
Chiangrai United
0.78

Vissel Kobe creates 171% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

creates per match

Vissel Kobe
2.22
Chiangrai United
0.67

allows per match

Vissel Kobe
0.89
Chiangrai United
2.00

finishing

Vissel Kobe+0.00on par
Chiangrai United+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vissel Kobe ↓

Chiangrai United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Vissel Kobe or draw
87%
Vissel Kobe or Chiangrai United
81%
Draw or Chiangrai United
32%

Winning margin

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+
43%
Chiangrai United wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals
88%
Vissel Kobe 2+ goals
62%
Vissel Kobe 3+ goals
35%
Chiangrai United 1+ goals
54%
Chiangrai United 2+ goals
18%
Chiangrai United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)
84%
Chiangrai United (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vissel Kobe at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Chiangrai United away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vissel Kobe attack 2.22 + Chiangrai United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.11

Chiangrai United attack 0.67 + Vissel Kobe defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Vissel Kobe scores more
68%
level
19%
Chiangrai United scores more
13%

Vissel Kobe at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vissel Kobe vs Chiangrai United

Vissel Kobe beat Chiangrai United 6-0 in AFC Champions League on April 22, 2022.

The match was played at Chang Arena in Buriram.