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Chiangrai United vs Vissel Kobe — AFC Champions League 2018

Chiangrai United
Chiangrai United
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobe
4/25/2022AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 4Chang Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Chiangrai United32%
×Draw26%
Vissel Kobe42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chiangrai United
1.24
Vissel Kobe
1.44

Vissel Kobe creates 16% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

creates per match

Chiangrai United
1.33
Vissel Kobe
1.54

allows per match

Chiangrai United
1.33
Vissel Kobe
1.15

finishing

Chiangrai United+0.00on par
Vissel Kobe+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangrai United ↓

Vissel Kobe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Chiangrai United or draw
58%
Chiangrai United or Vissel Kobe
74%
Draw or Vissel Kobe
68%

Winning margin

Chiangrai United wins by 2+
14%
Vissel Kobe wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Chiangrai United 1+ goals
71%
Chiangrai United 2+ goals
35%
Chiangrai United 3+ goals
13%
Vissel Kobe 1+ goals
76%
Vissel Kobe 2+ goals
42%
Vissel Kobe 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Chiangrai United (draw refunded)
44%
Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiangrai United at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Vissel Kobe away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiangrai United attack 1.33 + Vissel Kobe defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.24

Vissel Kobe attack 1.54 + Chiangrai United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chiangrai United scores more
32%
level
26%
Vissel Kobe scores more
42%

Vissel Kobe at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chiangrai United vs Vissel Kobe

Chiangrai United and Vissel Kobe drew 0-0 in AFC Champions League on April 25, 2022.

The match was played at Chang Arena in Buriram.