Vis Kosova 4–3 Rudar Kakanj: Result & Stats

Vis Kosova

FT

4 – 3

Rudar Kakanj

11/5/2022

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 13Gradski stadion Maglaj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Vis Kosova50%

×Draw26%

Rudar Kakanj25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vis KosovaExpected goals in this matchRudar Kakanj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.00

Vis Kosova

1.53

Rudar Kakanj

1.00

Vis Kosova creates 53% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 68 away

1.50

creates per match

0.90

1.10

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Vis Kosova

1.50

Rudar Kakanj

0.90

allows per match

Vis Kosova

1.10

Rudar Kakanj

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vis Kosova+0.00on par

Rudar Kakanj+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vis Kosova ↓

Rudar Kakanj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Vis Kosova or draw

75%

Vis Kosova or Rudar Kakanj

74%

Draw or Rudar Kakanj

50%

Winning margin

Vis Kosova wins by 2+

25%

Rudar Kakanj wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Vis Kosova 1+ goals

78%

Vis Kosova 2+ goals

45%

Vis Kosova 3+ goals

20%

Rudar Kakanj 1+ goals

63%

Rudar Kakanj 2+ goals

26%

Rudar Kakanj 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Vis Kosova (draw refunded)

67%

Rudar Kakanj (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vis Kosova at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.10 · 60 matches

Rudar Kakanj away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.56 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vis Kosova attack 1.50 + Rudar Kakanj defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.53

Rudar Kakanj attack 0.90 + Vis Kosova defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vis Kosova scores more

50%

level

26%

Rudar Kakanj scores more

25%

Vis Kosova at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vis Kosova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff