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Rudar Kakanj vs Vis Kosova — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Rudar Kakanj
Rudar Kakanj
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Vis Kosova
Vis Kosova
3/26/20221st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 19Stadion Pod Vardom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Rudar Kakanj53%
×Draw24%
Vis Kosova23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudar Kakanj
1.73
Vis Kosova
1.05

Rudar Kakanj creates 65% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 61 away

creates per match

Rudar Kakanj
1.75
Vis Kosova
1.21

allows per match

Rudar Kakanj
0.90
Vis Kosova
1.70

finishing

Rudar Kakanj+0.00on par
Vis Kosova+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar Kakanj ↓

Vis Kosova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rudar Kakanj or draw
77%
Rudar Kakanj or Vis Kosova
76%
Draw or Vis Kosova
47%

Winning margin

Rudar Kakanj wins by 2+
29%
Vis Kosova wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rudar Kakanj 1+ goals
82%
Rudar Kakanj 2+ goals
52%
Rudar Kakanj 3+ goals
25%
Vis Kosova 1+ goals
65%
Vis Kosova 2+ goals
28%
Vis Kosova 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rudar Kakanj (draw refunded)
70%
Vis Kosova (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar Kakanj at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.90 · 68 matches

Vis Kosova away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.70 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar Kakanj attack 1.75 + Vis Kosova defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.73

Vis Kosova attack 1.21 + Rudar Kakanj defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rudar Kakanj scores more
53%
level
24%
Vis Kosova scores more
23%

Rudar Kakanj at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Rudar Kakanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rudar Kakanj vs Vis Kosova

Rudar Kakanj beat Vis Kosova 2-0 in 1st League - FBiH on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Vardom in Kakanj.