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Vis Kosova vs GOŠK Gabela — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Vis Kosova
Vis Kosova
FT
1 – 1
GOŠK Gabela
GOŠK Gabela
5/9/20211st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 25Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Vis Kosova39%
×Draw27%
GOŠK Gabela34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vis Kosova
1.29
GOŠK Gabela
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 66 away

creates per match

Vis Kosova
1.50
GOŠK Gabela
1.29

allows per match

Vis Kosova
1.10
GOŠK Gabela
1.08

finishing

Vis Kosova+0.00on par
GOŠK Gabela+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vis Kosova ↓

GOŠK Gabela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vis Kosova or draw
66%
Vis Kosova or GOŠK Gabela
73%
Draw or GOŠK Gabela
61%

Winning margin

Vis Kosova wins by 2+
17%
GOŠK Gabela wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Vis Kosova 1+ goals
72%
Vis Kosova 2+ goals
37%
Vis Kosova 3+ goals
14%
GOŠK Gabela 1+ goals
70%
GOŠK Gabela 2+ goals
34%
GOŠK Gabela 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vis Kosova (draw refunded)
53%
GOŠK Gabela (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vis Kosova at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.10 · 60 matches

GOŠK Gabela away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.08 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vis Kosova attack 1.50 + GOŠK Gabela defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.29

GOŠK Gabela attack 1.29 + Vis Kosova defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vis Kosova scores more
39%
level
27%
GOŠK Gabela scores more
34%

Vis Kosova at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vis Kosova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vis Kosova vs GOŠK Gabela

Vis Kosova and GOŠK Gabela drew 1-1 in 1st League - FBiH on May 9, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Žepče.