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GOŠK Gabela vs Vis Kosova — 1st League - FBiH 2019

GOŠK Gabela
GOŠK Gabela
FT
2 – 1
Vis Kosova
Vis Kosova
10/15/20221st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 10Stadion Perica-Pero Pavlović

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

GOŠK Gabela57%
×Draw23%
Vis Kosova21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GOŠK Gabela
1.86
Vis Kosova
1.02

GOŠK Gabela creates 82% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 61 away

creates per match

GOŠK Gabela
2.03
Vis Kosova
1.21

allows per match

GOŠK Gabela
0.83
Vis Kosova
1.70

finishing

GOŠK Gabela+0.00on par
Vis Kosova+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOŠK Gabela ↓

Vis Kosova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

GOŠK Gabela or draw
79%
GOŠK Gabela or Vis Kosova
77%
Draw or Vis Kosova
43%

Winning margin

GOŠK Gabela wins by 2+
33%
Vis Kosova wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

GOŠK Gabela 1+ goals
84%
GOŠK Gabela 2+ goals
55%
GOŠK Gabela 3+ goals
28%
Vis Kosova 1+ goals
64%
Vis Kosova 2+ goals
27%
Vis Kosova 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

GOŠK Gabela (draw refunded)
74%
Vis Kosova (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOŠK Gabela at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.83 · 66 matches

Vis Kosova away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.70 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOŠK Gabela attack 2.03 + Vis Kosova defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.86

Vis Kosova attack 1.21 + GOŠK Gabela defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

GOŠK Gabela scores more
57%
level
23%
Vis Kosova scores more
21%

GOŠK Gabela at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "GOŠK Gabela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: GOŠK Gabela 2–1 Vis Kosova

GOŠK Gabela beat Vis Kosova 2-1 in 1st League - FBiH on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Perica-Pero Pavlović in Gabela.