Vis Artena 0–3 Real Monterotondo: Result & Stats

Vis Artena

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Real Monterotondo

5/25/2022

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 34Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Vis Artena43%

×Draw27%

Real Monterotondo30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vis ArtenaExpected goals in this matchReal Monterotondo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.08

Vis Artena

1.37

Real Monterotondo

1.08

Vis Artena creates 27% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 69 away

1.13

creates per match

0.97

1.19

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Vis Artena

1.13

Real Monterotondo

0.97

allows per match

Vis Artena

1.19

Real Monterotondo

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vis Artena+0.00on par

Real Monterotondo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vis Artena ↓

Real Monterotondo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Vis Artena or draw

70%

Vis Artena or Real Monterotondo

73%

Draw or Real Monterotondo

57%

Winning margin

Vis Artena wins by 2+

20%

Real Monterotondo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Vis Artena 1+ goals

75%

Vis Artena 2+ goals

40%

Vis Artena 3+ goals

16%

Real Monterotondo 1+ goals

66%

Real Monterotondo 2+ goals

29%

Real Monterotondo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Vis Artena (draw refunded)

59%

Real Monterotondo (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vis Artena at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

Real Monterotondo away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.61 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vis Artena attack 1.13 + Real Monterotondo defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.37

Real Monterotondo attack 0.97 + Vis Artena defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vis Artena scores more

43%

level

27%

Real Monterotondo scores more

30%

Vis Artena at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vis Artena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vis Artena vs Real Monterotondo

Real Monterotondo beat Vis Artena 3-0 in Serie D - Girone G on May 25, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Artena.

Vis Artena vs Real Monterotondo — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Vis Artena vs Real Monterotondo