Real Monterotondo 2–1 Vis Artena: Result & Stats

Real Monterotondo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Vis Artena

3/19/2022

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 17Stadio Ottavio Pierangeli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Real Monterotondo39%

×Draw26%

Vis Artena35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real MonterotondoExpected goals in this matchVis Artena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.28

Real Monterotondo

1.36

Vis Artena

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 47 away

1.54

creates per match

1.06

1.50

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Real Monterotondo

1.54

Vis Artena

1.06

allows per match

Real Monterotondo

1.50

Vis Artena

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Monterotondo+0.00on par

Vis Artena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Monterotondo ↓

Vis Artena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Real Monterotondo or draw

65%

Real Monterotondo or Vis Artena

74%

Draw or Vis Artena

61%

Winning margin

Real Monterotondo wins by 2+

18%

Vis Artena wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Real Monterotondo 1+ goals

74%

Real Monterotondo 2+ goals

39%

Real Monterotondo 3+ goals

16%

Vis Artena 1+ goals

72%

Vis Artena 2+ goals

37%

Vis Artena 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Real Monterotondo (draw refunded)

53%

Vis Artena (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Monterotondo at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.50 · 68 matches

Vis Artena away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Monterotondo attack 1.54 + Vis Artena defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.36

Vis Artena attack 1.06 + Real Monterotondo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Real Monterotondo scores more

39%

level

26%

Vis Artena scores more

35%

Real Monterotondo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Real Monterotondo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff