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Vis Artena vs Ladispoli — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Vis Artena
Vis Artena
FT
3 – 1
Ladispoli
Ladispoli
9/22/2019Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 4Stadio Superga (Ciampino)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Vis Artena49%
×Draw26%
Ladispoli25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vis Artena
1.49
Ladispoli
0.98

Vis Artena creates 52% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 13 away

creates per match

Vis Artena
1.13
Ladispoli
0.77

allows per match

Vis Artena
1.19
Ladispoli
1.85

finishing

Vis Artena+0.00on par
Ladispoli+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vis Artena ↓

Ladispoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vis Artena or draw
75%
Vis Artena or Ladispoli
74%
Draw or Ladispoli
51%

Winning margin

Vis Artena wins by 2+
25%
Ladispoli wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vis Artena 1+ goals
77%
Vis Artena 2+ goals
44%
Vis Artena 3+ goals
19%
Ladispoli 1+ goals
62%
Ladispoli 2+ goals
26%
Ladispoli 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vis Artena (draw refunded)
66%
Ladispoli (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vis Artena at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

Ladispoli away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vis Artena attack 1.13 + Ladispoli defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.49

Ladispoli attack 0.77 + Vis Artena defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vis Artena scores more
49%
level
26%
Ladispoli scores more
25%

Vis Artena at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vis Artena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Vis Artena 3–1 Ladispoli

Vis Artena beat Ladispoli 3-1 in Serie D - Girone G on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Superga (Ciampino).