Ladispoli 1–2 Vis Artena: Result & Stats

Ladispoli

FT

1 – 2

Vis Artena

1/26/2020

Serie D - Girone G · Round 21Stadio Angelo Sale (Ladispoli)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ladispoli35%

×Draw28%

Vis Artena37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LadispoliExpected goals in this matchVis Artena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.22

Ladispoli

1.17

Vis Artena

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 47 away

1.15

creates per match

1.06

1.38

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Ladispoli

1.15

Vis Artena

1.06

allows per match

Ladispoli

1.38

Vis Artena

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ladispoli+0.00on par

Vis Artena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ladispoli ↓

Vis Artena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ladispoli or draw

63%

Ladispoli or Vis Artena

72%

Draw or Vis Artena

65%

Winning margin

Ladispoli wins by 2+

14%

Vis Artena wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ladispoli 1+ goals

69%

Ladispoli 2+ goals

33%

Ladispoli 3+ goals

11%

Vis Artena 1+ goals

70%

Vis Artena 2+ goals

34%

Vis Artena 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ladispoli (draw refunded)

48%

Vis Artena (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ladispoli at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Vis Artena away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ladispoli attack 1.15 + Vis Artena defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Vis Artena attack 1.06 + Ladispoli defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ladispoli scores more

35%

level

28%

Vis Artena scores more

37%

Vis Artena at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Vis Artena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff