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Vis Artena vs Angri Calcio — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Vis Artena
Vis Artena
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Angri Calcio
Angri Calcio
11/20/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 12Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Vis Artena39%
×Draw26%
Angri Calcio35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vis Artena
1.36
Angri Calcio
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 17 away

creates per match

Vis Artena
1.13
Angri Calcio
1.35

allows per match

Vis Artena
1.19
Angri Calcio
1.59

finishing

Vis Artena+0.00on par
Angri Calcio+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vis Artena ↓

Angri Calcio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Vis Artena or draw
65%
Vis Artena or Angri Calcio
74%
Draw or Angri Calcio
61%

Winning margin

Vis Artena wins by 2+
18%
Angri Calcio wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Vis Artena 1+ goals
74%
Vis Artena 2+ goals
39%
Vis Artena 3+ goals
16%
Angri Calcio 1+ goals
72%
Angri Calcio 2+ goals
36%
Angri Calcio 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Vis Artena (draw refunded)
53%
Angri Calcio (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vis Artena at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

Angri Calcio away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vis Artena attack 1.13 + Angri Calcio defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.36

Angri Calcio attack 1.35 + Vis Artena defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vis Artena scores more
39%
level
26%
Angri Calcio scores more
35%

Vis Artena at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vis Artena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vis Artena vs Angri Calcio

Vis Artena beat Angri Calcio 2-0 in Serie D - Girone G on November 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Artena.