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Angri Calcio vs Vis Artena — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Angri Calcio
Angri Calcio
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Vis Artena
Vis Artena
4/2/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 29Stadio Pasquale Novi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Angri Calcio32%
×Draw28%
Vis Artena40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angri Calcio
1.06
Vis Artena
1.23

Vis Artena creates 16% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 47 away

creates per match

Angri Calcio
0.94
Vis Artena
1.06

allows per match

Angri Calcio
1.41
Vis Artena
1.19

finishing

Angri Calcio+0.00on par
Vis Artena+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angri Calcio ↓

Vis Artena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Angri Calcio or draw
60%
Angri Calcio or Vis Artena
72%
Draw or Vis Artena
68%

Winning margin

Angri Calcio wins by 2+
12%
Vis Artena wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Angri Calcio 1+ goals
65%
Angri Calcio 2+ goals
29%
Angri Calcio 3+ goals
9%
Vis Artena 1+ goals
71%
Vis Artena 2+ goals
35%
Vis Artena 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Angri Calcio (draw refunded)
44%
Vis Artena (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angri Calcio at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Vis Artena away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angri Calcio attack 0.94 + Vis Artena defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.06

Vis Artena attack 1.06 + Angri Calcio defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Angri Calcio scores more
32%
level
28%
Vis Artena scores more
40%

Vis Artena at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vis Artena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Angri Calcio vs Vis Artena

Vis Artena beat Angri Calcio 2-0 in Serie D - Girone G on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Pasquale Novi in Angri.