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Vis Artena vs Albalonga — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Vis Artena
Vis Artena
FT
4 – 1
Albalonga
Albalonga
10/30/2021Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 7Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Vis Artena38%
×Draw27%
Albalonga35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vis Artena
1.30
Albalonga
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 51 away

creates per match

Vis Artena
1.13
Albalonga
1.29

allows per match

Vis Artena
1.19
Albalonga
1.47

finishing

Vis Artena+0.00on par
Albalonga+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vis Artena ↓

Albalonga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vis Artena or draw
65%
Vis Artena or Albalonga
73%
Draw or Albalonga
62%

Winning margin

Vis Artena wins by 2+
17%
Albalonga wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Vis Artena 1+ goals
73%
Vis Artena 2+ goals
37%
Vis Artena 3+ goals
14%
Albalonga 1+ goals
71%
Albalonga 2+ goals
35%
Albalonga 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Vis Artena (draw refunded)
52%
Albalonga (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vis Artena at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

Albalonga away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vis Artena attack 1.13 + Albalonga defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Albalonga attack 1.29 + Vis Artena defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vis Artena scores more
38%
level
27%
Albalonga scores more
35%

Vis Artena at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vis Artena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vis Artena vs Albalonga

Vis Artena beat Albalonga 4-1 in Serie D - Girone G on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Artena.