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Albalonga vs Vis Artena — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Albalonga
Albalonga
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vis Artena
Vis Artena
3/13/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 24Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Albalonga47%
×Draw26%
Vis Artena26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albalonga
1.46
Vis Artena
1.01

Albalonga creates 45% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 47 away

creates per match

Albalonga
1.73
Vis Artena
1.06

allows per match

Albalonga
0.96
Vis Artena
1.19

finishing

Albalonga+0.00on par
Vis Artena+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albalonga ↓

Vis Artena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Albalonga or draw
74%
Albalonga or Vis Artena
74%
Draw or Vis Artena
53%

Winning margin

Albalonga wins by 2+
23%
Vis Artena wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Albalonga 1+ goals
77%
Albalonga 2+ goals
43%
Albalonga 3+ goals
18%
Vis Artena 1+ goals
64%
Vis Artena 2+ goals
27%
Vis Artena 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Albalonga (draw refunded)
64%
Vis Artena (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albalonga at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.96 · 51 matches

Vis Artena away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albalonga attack 1.73 + Vis Artena defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.46

Vis Artena attack 1.06 + Albalonga defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Albalonga scores more
47%
level
26%
Vis Artena scores more
26%

Albalonga at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Albalonga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Albalonga vs Vis Artena

Albalonga and Vis Artena drew 0-0 in Serie D - Girone G on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Genzano di Roma.