Vis Artena 0–2 Afragolese: Result & Stats

Vis Artena

FT

0 – 2

Afragolese

9/19/2021

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 1Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Vis Artena41%

×Draw26%

Afragolese33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vis ArtenaExpected goals in this matchAfragolese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.21

Vis Artena

1.39

Afragolese

1.21

Vis Artena creates 15% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 17 away

1.13

creates per match

1.24

1.19

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Vis Artena

1.13

Afragolese

1.24

allows per match

Vis Artena

1.19

Afragolese

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vis Artena+0.00on par

Afragolese+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vis Artena ↓

Afragolese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Vis Artena or draw

67%

Vis Artena or Afragolese

74%

Draw or Afragolese

59%

Winning margin

Vis Artena wins by 2+

19%

Afragolese wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Vis Artena 1+ goals

75%

Vis Artena 2+ goals

40%

Vis Artena 3+ goals

16%

Afragolese 1+ goals

70%

Afragolese 2+ goals

34%

Afragolese 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Vis Artena (draw refunded)

56%

Afragolese (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vis Artena at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

Afragolese away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vis Artena attack 1.13 + Afragolese defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.39

Afragolese attack 1.24 + Vis Artena defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vis Artena scores more

41%

level

26%

Afragolese scores more

33%

Vis Artena at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vis Artena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff