Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Afragolese vs Vis Artena — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Afragolese
Afragolese
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Vis Artena
Vis Artena
1/30/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 18Stadio Caduti di Brema

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Afragolese51%
×Draw25%
Vis Artena24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Afragolese
1.63
Vis Artena
1.03

Afragolese creates 58% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 47 away

creates per match

Afragolese
2.06
Vis Artena
1.06

allows per match

Afragolese
1.00
Vis Artena
1.19

finishing

Afragolese+0.00on par
Vis Artena+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Afragolese ↓

Vis Artena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Afragolese or draw
76%
Afragolese or Vis Artena
75%
Draw or Vis Artena
49%

Winning margin

Afragolese wins by 2+
27%
Vis Artena wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Afragolese 1+ goals
80%
Afragolese 2+ goals
48%
Afragolese 3+ goals
22%
Vis Artena 1+ goals
64%
Vis Artena 2+ goals
28%
Vis Artena 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Afragolese (draw refunded)
68%
Vis Artena (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Afragolese at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Vis Artena away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Afragolese attack 2.06 + Vis Artena defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.63

Vis Artena attack 1.06 + Afragolese defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Afragolese scores more
51%
level
25%
Vis Artena scores more
24%

Afragolese at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Afragolese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Afragolese 4–3 Vis Artena

Afragolese beat Vis Artena 4-3 in Serie D - Girone G on January 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Caduti di Brema in Napoli.