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Virtus vs Tre Fiori — Coppa Titano 2020

Virtus
Virtus
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tre Fiori
Tre Fiori
3/4/2026Coppa TitanoCoppa Titano · Semi-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Virtus44%
×Draw26%
Tre Fiori30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Virtus
1.43
Tre Fiori
1.12

Virtus creates 28% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 17 away

creates per match

Virtus
1.92
Tre Fiori
1.41

allows per match

Virtus
0.83
Tre Fiori
0.94

finishing

Virtus+0.00on par
Tre Fiori+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus ↓

Tre Fiori →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Virtus or draw
70%
Virtus or Tre Fiori
74%
Draw or Tre Fiori
56%

Winning margin

Virtus wins by 2+
21%
Tre Fiori wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Virtus 1+ goals
76%
Virtus 2+ goals
42%
Virtus 3+ goals
17%
Tre Fiori 1+ goals
67%
Tre Fiori 2+ goals
31%
Tre Fiori 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Virtus (draw refunded)
60%
Tre Fiori (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Tre Fiori away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus attack 1.92 + Tre Fiori defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.43

Tre Fiori attack 1.41 + Virtus defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Virtus scores more
44%
level
26%
Tre Fiori scores more
30%

Virtus at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Virtus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coppa Titano: Virtus 0–0 Tre Fiori

Virtus and Tre Fiori drew 0-0 in Coppa Titano on March 4, 2026.