Tre Fiori 0–2 Virtus: Result & Stats | Coppa Titano

Tre Fiori

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Virtus

4/3/2024

Coppa Titano · Semi-finalsStadio Fonte Dell'Ovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Tre Fiori42%

×Draw29%

Virtus29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tre FioriExpected goals in this matchVirtus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.94

Tre Fiori

1.19

Virtus

0.94

Tre Fiori creates 27% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

1.80

creates per match

1.08

0.80

allows per match

0.58

creates per match

Tre Fiori

1.80

Virtus

1.08

allows per match

Tre Fiori

0.80

Virtus

0.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tre Fiori+0.00on par

Virtus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tre Fiori ↓

Virtus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Tre Fiori or draw

71%

Tre Fiori or Virtus

71%

Draw or Virtus

58%

Winning margin

Tre Fiori wins by 2+

18%

Virtus wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tre Fiori 1+ goals

70%

Tre Fiori 2+ goals

33%

Tre Fiori 3+ goals

12%

Virtus 1+ goals

61%

Virtus 2+ goals

24%

Virtus 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tre Fiori (draw refunded)

59%

Virtus (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tre Fiori at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Virtus away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tre Fiori attack 1.80 + Virtus defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.19

Virtus attack 1.08 + Tre Fiori defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tre Fiori scores more

42%

level

29%

Virtus scores more

29%

Tre Fiori at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tre Fiori will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff