Virtus 2–1 Faetano: Result & Stats | League #404

Virtus

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Faetano

10/26/2025

League #404 · Round 7Stadio Fonte Dell'Ovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Virtus55%

×Draw23%

Faetano21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VirtusExpected goals in this matchFaetano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.01

Virtus

1.78

Faetano

1.01

Virtus creates 76% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 45 away

1.45

creates per match

1.20

0.82

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Virtus

1.45

Faetano

1.20

allows per match

Virtus

0.82

Faetano

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Virtus+0.00on par

Faetano+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus ↓

Faetano →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Virtus or draw

79%

Virtus or Faetano

77%

Draw or Faetano

45%

Winning margin

Virtus wins by 2+

31%

Faetano wins by 2+

Team goals

Virtus 1+ goals

83%

Virtus 2+ goals

53%

Virtus 3+ goals

26%

Faetano 1+ goals

64%

Faetano 2+ goals

27%

Faetano 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Virtus (draw refunded)

72%

Faetano (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Virtus at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Faetano away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Virtus attack 1.45 + Faetano defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.78

Faetano attack 1.20 + Virtus defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Virtus scores more

55%

level

23%

Faetano scores more

21%

Virtus at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Virtus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff