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Faetano vs Virtus — Coppa Titano 2020

Faetano
Faetano
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Virtus
Virtusadvanced
11/27/2024Coppa TitanoCoppa Titano · Quarter-finalsStadio Fonte Dell'Ovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Faetano28%
×Draw29%
Virtus43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Faetano
0.92
Virtus
1.23

Virtus creates 34% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

creates per match

Faetano
1.25
Virtus
1.08

allows per match

Faetano
1.38
Virtus
0.58

finishing

Faetano+0.00on par
Virtus+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Faetano ↓

Virtus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Faetano or draw
57%
Faetano or Virtus
71%
Draw or Virtus
72%

Winning margin

Faetano wins by 2+
10%
Virtus wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Faetano 1+ goals
60%
Faetano 2+ goals
23%
Faetano 3+ goals
7%
Virtus 1+ goals
71%
Virtus 2+ goals
35%
Virtus 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Faetano (draw refunded)
39%
Virtus (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Faetano at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Virtus away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Faetano attack 1.25 + Virtus defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.92

Virtus attack 1.08 + Faetano defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Faetano scores more
28%
level
29%
Virtus scores more
43%

Virtus at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Virtus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coppa Titano: Faetano 1–4 Virtus

Virtus beat Faetano 4-1 in Coppa Titano on November 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Fonte Dell'Ovo in Città di San Marino.