Virtus Verona 1–1 Giana Erminio: Result & Stats

Virtus Verona

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Giana Erminio

D. Mehic 59'

L. Caferri 45+2'

12/7/2024

League #138 · Girone A - 18Stadio Comunale Gavagnin-Nocini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Virtus Verona34%

×Draw36%

Giana Erminio30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Virtus VeronaExpected goals in this matchGiana Erminio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

0.73

Virtus Verona

0.80

Giana Erminio

0.73

Virtus Verona creates 10% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 19 away

0.71

creates per match

0.58

0.88

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Virtus Verona

0.71

Giana Erminio

0.58

allows per match

Virtus Verona

0.88

Giana Erminio

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Virtus Verona+0.00on par

Giana Erminio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under80
Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Verona ↓

Giana Erminio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–022%

0–116%

0–26%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–15%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

78%22%1.5

45%55%2.5

20%80%3.5

7%93%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Virtus Verona or draw

70%

Virtus Verona or Giana Erminio

64%

Draw or Giana Erminio

66%

Winning margin

Virtus Verona wins by 2+

11%

Giana Erminio wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Virtus Verona 1+ goals

55%

Virtus Verona 2+ goals

19%

Virtus Verona 3+ goals

5%

Giana Erminio 1+ goals

52%

Giana Erminio 2+ goals

17%

Giana Erminio 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Virtus Verona (draw refunded)

53%

Giana Erminio (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Verona at home — creates 0.71, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Giana Erminio away — creates 0.58, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Verona attack 0.71 + Giana Erminio defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.80

Giana Erminio attack 0.58 + Virtus Verona defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Virtus Verona scores more

34%

level

36%

Giana Erminio scores more

30%

Virtus Verona at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Virtus Verona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

J. Gómez Taleb← M. Pagliuca

31'

45+2'

46'

46'

59'

60'

68'

J. Gomez

78'

S. Lerco← F. Rispoli

80'

M. Marotta

82'

M. Ballabio← D. Pinto

87'

M. Ballabio

88'

G. Manfrin

Virtus

Giana

29

Moro

27

Alborghet

23

⚽

13

26

14

4

7

▼

10

19

17

55

6

37

34

▼

Ronco

10

Zarpellon

5

⚽

Mehic

30

▼

Gatti

23

Toffanin

32

▼

Rispoli

99

Caia

44

▼

Pagliuca

Manager: L. Fresco

21'▲J. Gómez Taleb←▼M. Pagliuca

46'▲E. Catena←▼D. Ronco

46'▲G. Manfrin←▼C. Gatti

78'▲S. Lerco←▼F. Rispoli

Virtus Verona substitutes

21Taleb2Catena11Manfrin74Lerco3Rigo9Contini12Fortin16Bassi22Sibi25Filippi47Cuel90Odogwu

Manager: A. Chiappella

82'▲M. Ballabio←▼D. Pinto

Giana Erminio substitutes

15Ballabio1Pirola8Montipò11Spaviero18Maria21Pala22Mangiapoco47Scaringi77Piazza99Renda

Match Recap: Virtus Verona vs Giana Erminio

Virtus Verona and Giana Erminio drew 1-1 in League #138 on December 7, 2024.

Goals: L. Caferri (45+2'), D. Mehic (59').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Gavagnin-Nocini in Verona.

Virtus Verona vs Giana Erminio — League #138 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Virtus Verona vs Giana Erminio