Giana Erminio 1–3 Virtus Verona: Result & Stats

Giana Erminio

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Virtus Verona

A. Capelli 20'

D. Bulevardi 90'

N. Patane 45'

F. Toffanin 22'

9/25/2025

League #138 · Girone A - 6Stadio Citta di Gorgonzola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Giana Erminio47%

×Draw27%

Virtus Verona27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Giana ErminioExpected goals in this matchVirtus Verona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.00

Giana Erminio

1.42

Virtus Verona

1.00

Giana Erminio creates 42% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.24

creates per match

0.76

1.24

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Giana Erminio

1.24

Virtus Verona

0.76

allows per match

Giana Erminio

1.24

Virtus Verona

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Giana Erminio+0.00on par

Virtus Verona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Giana Erminio ↓

Virtus Verona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Giana Erminio or draw

73%

Giana Erminio or Virtus Verona

73%

Draw or Virtus Verona

53%

Winning margin

Giana Erminio wins by 2+

23%

Virtus Verona wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Giana Erminio 1+ goals

76%

Giana Erminio 2+ goals

41%

Giana Erminio 3+ goals

17%

Virtus Verona 1+ goals

63%

Virtus Verona 2+ goals

26%

Virtus Verona 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Giana Erminio (draw refunded)

64%

Virtus Verona (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Giana Erminio at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

Virtus Verona away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Giana Erminio attack 1.24 + Virtus Verona defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.42

Virtus Verona attack 0.76 + Giana Erminio defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Giana Erminio scores more

47%

level

27%

Virtus Verona scores more

27%

Giana Erminio at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Giana Erminio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

A. Capelli

22'

F. Toffanin

28'

M. Colombara← A. Piazza

33'

43'

45'

46'

53'

54'

T. Nucifero← L. Ruffini

54'

F. Akammadu← A. Capelli

56'

C. Gatti← L. Zarpellon

59'

E. Muhameti

68'

T. Mancini

69'

D. Bulevardi← E. Muhameti

69'

C. Odogwu← T. Mancini

74'

F. Saiani

80'

M. Amadio← M. Fabbro

80'

L. Munaretti← F. Saiani

84'

L. Lischetti← A. Albertini

90+5'

D. Bulevardi

90'

D. Bulevardi

Giana

Virtus

22

Sibi

75

Bassi

23

⚽

Toffanin

6

Daffara

28

⚽

Patane

21

▼

Muhameti

5

Fanini

10

▼

Zarpellon

29

▼

Saiani

39

▼

Mancini

99

▼

Fabbro

22

Mazza

26

Previtali

4

▼

Piazza

27

Alborghet

33

▼

Albertini

90

▼

Vitale

10

Lamesta

7

Pinto

24

▼

Ruffini

97

Gabbiani

11

⚽

▼

Capelli

28'▲M. Colombara←▼A. Piazza

46'▲F. Renda←▼V. Vitale

54'▲T. Nucifero←▼L. Ruffini

54'▲F. Akammadu←▼A. Capelli

84'▲L. Lischetti←▼A. Albertini

Giana Erminio substitutes

1Zenti12Magni3Nucifero8Nelli9Akammadu13Colombara14Marotta19Duca20Renda23Occhipinti37Lischetti

Manager: L. Fresco

56'▲C. Gatti←▼L. Zarpellon

69'▲D. Bulevardi←▼E. Muhameti

69'▲C. Odogwu←▼T. Mancini

80'▲M. Amadio←▼M. Fabbro

80'▲L. Munaretti←▼F. Saiani

Virtus Verona substitutes

1Peroni12Scardigno3Cielo4Lodovici7Amadio20Fiorin25Filippi30Gatti44Pagliuca47Cuel80Bulevardi90Odogwu95Munaretti