Virtus Entella 1–2 Vicenza Virtus: Result & Stats

Virtus Entella

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Vicenza Virtus

5/1/2021

Serie B · Round 35Stadio Comunale Chiavari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Virtus Entella43%

×Draw27%

Vicenza Virtus31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Virtus EntellaExpected goals in this matchVicenza Virtus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.14

Virtus Entella

1.39

Vicenza Virtus

1.14

Virtus Entella creates 22% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 44 away

1.14

creates per match

1.02

1.25

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Virtus Entella

1.14

Vicenza Virtus

1.02

allows per match

Virtus Entella

1.25

Vicenza Virtus

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Virtus Entella+0.00on par

Vicenza Virtus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Entella ↓

Vicenza Virtus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Virtus Entella or draw

69%

Virtus Entella or Vicenza Virtus

73%

Draw or Vicenza Virtus

57%

Winning margin

Virtus Entella wins by 2+

20%

Vicenza Virtus wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Virtus Entella 1+ goals

75%

Virtus Entella 2+ goals

40%

Virtus Entella 3+ goals

16%

Vicenza Virtus 1+ goals

68%

Vicenza Virtus 2+ goals

32%

Vicenza Virtus 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)

58%

Vicenza Virtus (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Entella at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

Vicenza Virtus away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.64 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Entella attack 1.14 + Vicenza Virtus defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.39

Vicenza Virtus attack 1.02 + Virtus Entella defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Virtus Entella scores more

43%

level

27%

Vicenza Virtus scores more

31%

Virtus Entella at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Virtus Entella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff