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Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella — Serie B 2018

Vicenza Virtus
Vicenza Virtus
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Virtus Entella
Virtus Entella
12/30/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 16Stadio Romeo Menti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Vicenza Virtus45%
×Draw27%
Virtus Entella28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vicenza Virtus
1.38
Virtus Entella
1.04

Vicenza Virtus creates 33% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 57 away

creates per match

Vicenza Virtus
1.11
Virtus Entella
0.82

allows per match

Vicenza Virtus
1.27
Virtus Entella
1.65

finishing

Vicenza Virtus+0.00on par
Virtus Entella+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vicenza Virtus ↓

Virtus Entella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vicenza Virtus or draw
72%
Vicenza Virtus or Virtus Entella
73%
Draw or Virtus Entella
55%

Winning margin

Vicenza Virtus wins by 2+
21%
Virtus Entella wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vicenza Virtus 1+ goals
75%
Vicenza Virtus 2+ goals
40%
Vicenza Virtus 3+ goals
16%
Virtus Entella 1+ goals
65%
Virtus Entella 2+ goals
28%
Virtus Entella 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vicenza Virtus (draw refunded)
61%
Virtus Entella (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vicenza Virtus at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Virtus Entella away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.65 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vicenza Virtus attack 1.11 + Virtus Entella defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.38

Virtus Entella attack 0.82 + Vicenza Virtus defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vicenza Virtus scores more
45%
level
27%
Virtus Entella scores more
28%

Vicenza Virtus at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vicenza Virtus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Vicenza Virtus 0–1 Virtus Entella

Virtus Entella beat Vicenza Virtus 1-0 in Serie B on December 30, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Romeo Menti in Vicenza.