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Virtus Entella vs Trapani — Serie B 2018

Virtus Entella
Virtus Entella
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Trapani
Trapani
10/19/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 8Stadio Comunale Chiavari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Virtus Entella48%
×Draw25%
Trapani28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Virtus Entella
1.63
Trapani
1.18

Virtus Entella creates 38% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Virtus Entella
1.14
Trapani
1.11

allows per match

Virtus Entella
1.25
Trapani
2.11

finishing

Virtus Entella+0.00on par
Trapani+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Entella ↓

Trapani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Virtus Entella or draw
72%
Virtus Entella or Trapani
75%
Draw or Trapani
52%

Winning margin

Virtus Entella wins by 2+
25%
Trapani wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Virtus Entella 1+ goals
80%
Virtus Entella 2+ goals
48%
Virtus Entella 3+ goals
22%
Trapani 1+ goals
69%
Trapani 2+ goals
33%
Trapani 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)
63%
Trapani (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Entella at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

Trapani away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Entella attack 1.14 + Trapani defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.63

Trapani attack 1.11 + Virtus Entella defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Virtus Entella scores more
48%
level
25%
Trapani scores more
28%

Virtus Entella at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Virtus Entella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Virtus Entella vs Trapani

Virtus Entella and Trapani drew 1-1 in Serie B on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Chiavari in Chiavari.