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Trapani vs Virtus Entella — Serie B 2018

Trapani
Trapani
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Virtus Entella
Virtus Entella
3/3/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 27Stadio Polisportivo Provinciale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Trapani51%
×Draw26%
Virtus Entella23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trapani
1.53
Virtus Entella
0.94

Trapani creates 63% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Trapani
1.42
Virtus Entella
0.82

allows per match

Trapani
1.05
Virtus Entella
1.65

finishing

Trapani+0.00on par
Virtus Entella+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trapani ↓

Virtus Entella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Trapani or draw
77%
Trapani or Virtus Entella
74%
Draw or Virtus Entella
49%

Winning margin

Trapani wins by 2+
26%
Virtus Entella wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Trapani 1+ goals
78%
Trapani 2+ goals
45%
Trapani 3+ goals
20%
Virtus Entella 1+ goals
61%
Virtus Entella 2+ goals
24%
Virtus Entella 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Trapani (draw refunded)
69%
Virtus Entella (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trapani at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Virtus Entella away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.65 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trapani attack 1.42 + Virtus Entella defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.53

Virtus Entella attack 0.82 + Trapani defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Trapani scores more
51%
level
26%
Virtus Entella scores more
23%

Trapani at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Trapani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Trapani 4–1 Virtus Entella

Trapani beat Virtus Entella 4-1 in Serie B on March 3, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Polisportivo Provinciale in Trapani.