Virtus Entella 3–0 Reggiana: Result & Stats

Virtus Entella

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Reggiana

L. Cuppone 82'

I. Marconi 65'

A. Franzoni 5'

3/22/2026

Serie B · Round 32Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Virtus Entella43%

×Draw26%

Reggiana31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Virtus EntellaExpected goals in this matchReggiana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.18

Virtus Entella

1.45

Reggiana

1.18

Virtus Entella creates 23% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

1.44

creates per match

1.09

1.26

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Virtus Entella

1.44

Reggiana

1.09

allows per match

Virtus Entella

1.26

Reggiana

1.46

+0.01on par

finishing

-0.65scores less than expected

finishing

Virtus Entella+0.01on par

Reggiana-0.65scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Entella ↓

Reggiana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Virtus Entella or draw

69%

Virtus Entella or Reggiana

74%

Draw or Reggiana

57%

Winning margin

Virtus Entella wins by 2+

21%

Reggiana wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Virtus Entella 1+ goals

77%

Virtus Entella 2+ goals

42%

Virtus Entella 3+ goals

18%

Reggiana 1+ goals

69%

Reggiana 2+ goals

33%

Reggiana 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)

58%

Reggiana (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Entella at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.26 · 11 matches

Reggiana away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.46 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Entella attack 1.44 + Reggiana defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.45

Reggiana attack 1.09 + Virtus Entella defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Virtus Entella scores more

43%

level

26%

Reggiana scores more

31%

Virtus Entella at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Virtus Entella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

A. Franzoni

Virtus Entella · M

8.5

Match Events

5'

A. Franzoni↳ S. Di Mario

23'

Lorenzo Libutti

48'

Andrea Papetti

56'

Andrija NovakovichCard upgrade

57'

61'

65'

65'

68'

K. Bozhanaj← L. Libutti

68'

Charlys← M. Bertagnoli

70'

Mateus Lusuardi

76'

Matteo Rover

77'

Leonardo Benedetti

78'

M. Alborghetti← I. Marconi

78'

F. Vicari← M. Rover

78'

T. Fumagalli← N. Girma

79'

N. Karic← L. Benedetti

82'

L. Cuppone↳ N. Karic

84'

M. Lambourde← T. Reinhart

85'

M. Dalla Vecchia← A. Franzoni

85'

T. Del Lungo← D. Bariti

86'

Tommaso Fumagalli

89'

D. P. Stabile← M. Tirelli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VirtusReggiana

Overview

54%Possession46%

19Total Shots11

1.73Expected Goals (xG)0.68

8Corners3

20Fouls18

Shots

19Total Shots11

9On Target3

5Off Target6

5Blocked2

14Inside Box6

5Outside Box5

Passing

54%Possession46%

375Total Passes328

294Accurate Passes252

78%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

-0.57Goals Prevented-0.57

Discipline

20Fouls18

2Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards1

5Offsides1

Match Recap: Virtus Entella vs Reggiana

Virtus Entella beat Reggiana 3-0 in Serie B on March 22, 2026.

Goals: A. Franzoni (5'), I. Marconi (65'), L. Cuppone (82').

Virtus Entella controlled possession (54%) and registered 19 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Chiavari.

Virtus Entella vs Reggiana — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Virtus Entella vs Reggiana