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Reggiana vs Virtus Entella — Serie B 2018

Reggiana
Reggiana
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Virtus Entella
Virtus Entella
11/8/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 12MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Reggiana38%
×Draw29%
Virtus Entella34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reggiana
1.17
Virtus Entella
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Reggiana
0.95
Virtus Entella
0.86

allows per match

Reggiana
1.32
Virtus Entella
1.38

finishing

Reggiana-0.22scores less
Virtus Entella-0.50scores less

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reggiana ↓

Virtus Entella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Reggiana or draw
66%
Reggiana or Virtus Entella
71%
Draw or Virtus Entella
62%

Winning margin

Reggiana wins by 2+
16%
Virtus Entella wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Reggiana 1+ goals
69%
Reggiana 2+ goals
33%
Reggiana 3+ goals
11%
Virtus Entella 1+ goals
66%
Virtus Entella 2+ goals
30%
Virtus Entella 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Reggiana (draw refunded)
53%
Virtus Entella (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reggiana at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.32 · 11 matches

Virtus Entella away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.38 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reggiana attack 0.95 + Virtus Entella defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.17

Virtus Entella attack 0.86 + Reggiana defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Reggiana scores more
38%
level
29%
Virtus Entella scores more
34%

Reggiana at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Reggiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
A. PapettiReggianaReggiana · D
8.5

Match Events

29'
Giangiacomo Magnani
57'
Ivan Marconi
63'
A. Novakovich← C. Gondo
64'
N. Girma← E. Tavsan
66'
Manuel Marras
72'
M. Rover← A. Bozzolan
72'
F. Mezzoni← D. Bariti
72'
F. Russo← A. Debenedetti
78'
M. Nichetti← A. Benali
78'
B. Guiu← T. Fumagalli
84'
L. Stulac← M. Bertagnoli

Possession

48%Reggiana

Shots

7Reggiana

Pass accuracy

49%Reggiana

Statistics

ReggianaVirtus
Overview
48%Possession52%
7Total Shots17
1.13Expected Goals (xG)1.06
4Corners13
15Fouls15
Shots
7Total Shots17
2On Target3
4Off Target6
1Blocked8
4Inside Box7
3Outside Box10
Passing
48%Possession52%
352Total Passes359
274Accurate Passes286
78%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls15
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Serie B: Reggiana 0–0 Virtus Entella

Reggiana and Virtus Entella drew 0-0 in Serie B on November 8, 2025.

Virtus Entella controlled possession (52%) and registered 17 shots to 7.

The match was played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Reggio Emilia.