Virtus Entella 1–1 Palermo: Result & Stats

Virtus Entella

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Palermo

A. Tiritiello 44'

J. Pohjanpalo 58'

11/22/2025

Serie B · Round 13Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Virtus Entella39%

×Draw25%

Palermo35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Virtus EntellaExpected goals in this matchPalermo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.35

Virtus Entella

1.44

Palermo

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 15 away

1.44

creates per match

1.45

1.26

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Virtus Entella

1.44

Palermo

1.45

allows per match

Virtus Entella

1.26

Palermo

1.43

+0.01on par

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Virtus Entella+0.01on par

Palermo-0.25scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Entella ↓

Palermo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Virtus Entella or draw

65%

Virtus Entella or Palermo

75%

Draw or Palermo

61%

Winning margin

Virtus Entella wins by 2+

19%

Palermo wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Virtus Entella 1+ goals

76%

Virtus Entella 2+ goals

42%

Virtus Entella 3+ goals

18%

Palermo 1+ goals

74%

Palermo 2+ goals

39%

Palermo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)

53%

Palermo (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Entella at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.26 · 11 matches

Palermo away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Entella attack 1.44 + Palermo defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.44

Palermo attack 1.45 + Virtus Entella defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Virtus Entella scores more

39%

level

25%

Palermo scores more

35%

Virtus Entella at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Virtus Entella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

B. Bereszynski

Palermo · D

7.7

Match Events

44'

A. Tiritiello↳ N. Karic

46'

B. Bereszynski← S. Diakite

47'

Mattia Bani

58'

J. Pohjanpalo↳ A. Palumbo

64'

B. Guiu← T. Fumagalli

64'

M. Dalla Vecchia← N. Karic

70'

F. Russo← A. Debenedetti

70'

J. Segre← A. Vasic

77'

G. Corona← J. Le Douaron

78'

Marco Dalla Vecchia

78'

S. Giovane← A. Blin

79'

M. Nichetti← A. Benali

79'

L. Moretti← D. Bariti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VirtusPalermo

Overview

46%Possession54%

18Total Shots17

2.94Expected Goals (xG)1.79

7Corners7

15Fouls9

Shots

18Total Shots17

2On Target2

6Off Target10

10Blocked5

13Inside Box14

5Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

356Total Passes424

247Accurate Passes314

69%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3