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Virtus Entella vs Palermo — Serie B 2018

Virtus Entella
Virtus Entella
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Palermo
Palermo
L. Gatto 80'
E. De Santis 74' (OG)
A. La Gumina 17'
3/29/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 33Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Virtus Entella39%
×Draw25%
Palermo35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Virtus Entella
1.44
Palermo
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 15 away

creates per match

Virtus Entella
1.44
Palermo
1.45

allows per match

Virtus Entella
1.26
Palermo
1.43

finishing

Virtus Entella+0.01on par
Palermo-0.25scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Entella ↓

Palermo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Virtus Entella or draw
65%
Virtus Entella or Palermo
75%
Draw or Palermo
61%

Winning margin

Virtus Entella wins by 2+
19%
Palermo wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Virtus Entella 1+ goals
76%
Virtus Entella 2+ goals
42%
Virtus Entella 3+ goals
18%
Palermo 1+ goals
74%
Palermo 2+ goals
39%
Palermo 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)
53%
Palermo (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Entella at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.26 · 11 matches

Palermo away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Entella attack 1.44 + Palermo defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.44

Palermo attack 1.45 + Virtus Entella defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Virtus Entella scores more
39%
level
25%
Palermo scores more
35%

Virtus Entella at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Virtus Entella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
A. La Gumina↳ Coronado
19'
Mato Jajalo
28'
N. Aliji← M. Cremonesi
55'
Aljaž Struna
58'
M. Aramu← M. Crimi
73'
M. Troiano← G. Acampora
73'
S. Moreo← A. La Gumina
74'
E. De SantisOwn goal
80'
L. Gatto↳ N. Aliji

Possession

46%Virtus

Shots

11Virtus

Statistics

VirtusPalermo
Overview
46%Possession54%
11Total Shots8
6Corners4
11Fouls17
Shots
11Total Shots8
6On Target5
5Off Target3
Passing
46%Possession54%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
11Fouls17
0Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
5Offsides2

Match Recap: Virtus Entella vs Palermo

Palermo beat Virtus Entella 2-1 in Serie B on March 29, 2018.

Goals: A. La Gumina (17'), E. De Santis (74' o.g.), L. Gatto (80').

Palermo controlled possession (54%) and registered 8 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Chiavari.