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Virtus Entella vs Monza — Serie B 2018

Virtus Entella
Virtus Entella
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Monza
Monza
1/10/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 19Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Virtus Entella37%
×Draw26%
Monza37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Virtus Entella
1.32
Monza
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

creates per match

Virtus Entella
1.44
Monza
1.43

allows per match

Virtus Entella
1.26
Monza
1.21

finishing

Virtus Entella+0.01on par
Monza+0.36scores more

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Entella ↓

Monza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Virtus Entella or draw
63%
Virtus Entella or Monza
74%
Draw or Monza
63%

Winning margin

Virtus Entella wins by 2+
16%
Monza wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Virtus Entella 1+ goals
73%
Virtus Entella 2+ goals
38%
Virtus Entella 3+ goals
15%
Monza 1+ goals
74%
Monza 2+ goals
39%
Monza 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)
49%
Monza (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Entella at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.26 · 11 matches

Monza away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Entella attack 1.44 + Monza defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.32

Monza attack 1.43 + Virtus Entella defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Virtus Entella scores more
37%
level
26%
Monza scores more
37%

Virtus Entella at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Virtus Entella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Virtus Entella 1–0 Monza

Virtus Entella beat Monza 1-0 in Serie B on January 10, 2026.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Chiavari.