Monza 2–0 Virtus Entella: Result & Stats | Serie B

Monza

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Virtus Entella

2/27/2026

Serie B · Round 27Brianteo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Monza53%

×Draw26%

Virtus Entella21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonzaExpected goals in this matchVirtus Entella

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.85

Monza

1.52

Virtus Entella

0.85

Monza creates 79% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.67

creates per match

0.86

0.84

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Monza

1.67

Virtus Entella

0.86

allows per match

Monza

0.84

Virtus Entella

1.38

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

Monza+0.16scores more

Virtus Entella-0.50scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza ↓

Virtus Entella →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Monza or draw

79%

Monza or Virtus Entella

74%

Draw or Virtus Entella

47%

Winning margin

Monza wins by 2+

27%

Virtus Entella wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Monza 1+ goals

78%

Monza 2+ goals

45%

Monza 3+ goals

20%

Virtus Entella 1+ goals

57%

Virtus Entella 2+ goals

21%

Virtus Entella 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Monza (draw refunded)

72%

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.84 · 12 matches

Virtus Entella away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.38 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza attack 1.67 + Virtus Entella defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.52

Virtus Entella attack 0.86 + Monza defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Monza scores more

53%

level

26%

Virtus Entella scores more

21%

Monza at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Monza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff