Virtus Entella 1–0 Mantova: Result & Stats

Virtus Entella

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mantova

A. Tiritiello 7'

9/14/2025

Serie B · Round 3Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Virtus Entella45%

×Draw25%

Mantova31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Virtus EntellaExpected goals in this matchMantova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.26

Virtus Entella

1.57

Mantova

1.26

Virtus Entella creates 25% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

1.44

creates per match

1.26

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Virtus Entella

1.44

Mantova

1.26

allows per match

Virtus Entella

1.26

Mantova

1.70

+0.01on par

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Virtus Entella+0.01on par

Mantova-0.01on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Entella ↓

Mantova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Virtus Entella or draw

69%

Virtus Entella or Mantova

75%

Draw or Mantova

55%

Winning margin

Virtus Entella wins by 2+

22%

Mantova wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Virtus Entella 1+ goals

79%

Virtus Entella 2+ goals

46%

Virtus Entella 3+ goals

21%

Mantova 1+ goals

72%

Mantova 2+ goals

36%

Mantova 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)

59%

Mantova (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Entella at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.26 · 11 matches

Mantova away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.70 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Entella attack 1.44 + Mantova defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.57

Mantova attack 1.26 + Virtus Entella defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Virtus Entella scores more

45%

level

25%

Mantova scores more

31%

Virtus Entella at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Virtus Entella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

A. Tiritiello

Virtus Entella · D

9.2

Match Events

7'

A. Tiritiello↳ B. Guiu

32'

T. Maggioni← V. Mantovani

38'

Andrea Franzoni

45+3'

Tommaso Fumagalli

59'

C. Falletti← L. Mancuso

59'

M. Caprini← A. Fiori

59'

D. Mensah← N. Bonfanti

65'

D. Ankeye← B. Guiu

65'

A. Debenedetti← T. Fumagalli

74'

Stefano Di Mario

75'

L. Parodi← T. Del Lungo

75'

Z. Majer← D. Wieser

84'

A. Boccadamo← S. Di Mario

85'

N. Karic← M. Dalla Vecchia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VirtusMantova

Overview

28%Possession72%

15Total Shots15

7Corners4

21Fouls5

Shots

15Total Shots15

9On Target4

3Off Target7

3Blocked4

11Inside Box6

4Outside Box9

Passing

28%Possession72%

225Total Passes610

172Accurate Passes540

76%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

Discipline

21Fouls5

3Yellow Cards0

0Offsides1