Mantova 1–0 Virtus Entella: Result & Stats

Mantova

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Virtus Entella

T. Marras 84'

4/6/2026

Serie B · Round 33Stadio Danilo Martelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Mantova49%

×Draw27%

Virtus Entella25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MantovaExpected goals in this matchVirtus Entella

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.95

Mantova

1.45

Virtus Entella

0.95

Mantova creates 53% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

1.32

creates per match

0.90

0.99

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Mantova

1.32

Virtus Entella

0.90

allows per match

Mantova

0.99

Virtus Entella

1.58

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.52scores less than expected

finishing

Mantova+0.18scores more

Virtus Entella-0.52scores less

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mantova ↓

Virtus Entella →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Mantova or draw

75%

Mantova or Virtus Entella

73%

Draw or Virtus Entella

51%

Winning margin

Mantova wins by 2+

24%

Virtus Entella wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Mantova 1+ goals

77%

Mantova 2+ goals

42%

Mantova 3+ goals

18%

Virtus Entella 1+ goals

61%

Virtus Entella 2+ goals

25%

Virtus Entella 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Mantova (draw refunded)

66%

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mantova at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.99 · 10 matches

Virtus Entella away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.58 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mantova attack 1.32 + Virtus Entella defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.45

Virtus Entella attack 0.90 + Mantova defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mantova scores more

49%

level

27%

Virtus Entella scores more

25%

Mantova at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mantova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

T. Marras

Mantova · F

7.7

Match Events

20'

D. Mensah← L. Mancuso

45+4'

Ivan Marconi

54'

F. Ruocco← N. Buso

57'

B. Guiu← L. Cuppone

57'

M. Alborghetti← I. Marconi

58'

Ali Dembélé

61'

Andrea Tiritiello

69'

A. Debenedetti← M. Tirelli

70'

F. Mezzoni← D. Bariti

76'

T. Marras← D. Bragantini

76'

F. Paoletti← D. Wieser

77'

M. Dalla Vecchia← N. Karic

81'

83'

84'

85'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MantovaVirtus

Overview

55%Possession45%

12Total Shots10

1.68Expected Goals (xG)0.83

4Corners2

18Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots10

6On Target1

4Off Target6

2Blocked3

8Inside Box7

4Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

344Total Passes277

278Accurate Passes188

81%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

0.02Goals Prevented0.02

Discipline

18Fouls15

4Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2

Serie B: Mantova 1–0 Virtus Entella

Mantova beat Virtus Entella 1-0 in Serie B on April 6, 2026.

Goals: T. Marras (84').

Mantova controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadio Danilo Martelli in Mantova.

Mantova vs Virtus Entella — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Mantova 1–0 Virtus Entella