Virtus Entella 1–0 Livorno: Result & Stats

Virtus Entella

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Livorno

8/24/2019

Serie B · Round 1Stadio Comunale Chiavari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Virtus Entella44%

×Draw27%

Livorno29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Virtus EntellaExpected goals in this matchLivorno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.04

Virtus Entella

1.35

Livorno

1.04

Virtus Entella creates 30% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 37 away

1.14

creates per match

0.84

1.25

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Virtus Entella

1.14

Livorno

0.84

allows per match

Virtus Entella

1.25

Livorno

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Virtus Entella+0.00on par

Livorno+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Entella ↓

Livorno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Virtus Entella or draw

71%

Virtus Entella or Livorno

73%

Draw or Livorno

56%

Winning margin

Virtus Entella wins by 2+

20%

Livorno wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Virtus Entella 1+ goals

74%

Virtus Entella 2+ goals

39%

Virtus Entella 3+ goals

15%

Livorno 1+ goals

65%

Livorno 2+ goals

28%

Livorno 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)

60%

Livorno (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Entella at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

Livorno away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.57 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Entella attack 1.14 + Livorno defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

Livorno attack 0.84 + Virtus Entella defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Virtus Entella scores more

44%

level

27%

Livorno scores more

29%

Virtus Entella at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Virtus Entella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff