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Livorno vs Virtus Entella — Serie B 2018

Livorno
Livorno
FT
4 – 4
HT: 3 – 1
Virtus Entella
Virtus Entella
1/18/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 20Stadio Armando Picchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Livorno39%
×Draw27%
Virtus Entella34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Livorno
1.32
Virtus Entella
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 57 away

creates per match

Livorno
1.00
Virtus Entella
0.82

allows per match

Livorno
1.62
Virtus Entella
1.65

finishing

Livorno+0.00on par
Virtus Entella+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Livorno ↓

Virtus Entella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Livorno or draw
66%
Livorno or Virtus Entella
73%
Draw or Virtus Entella
61%

Winning margin

Livorno wins by 2+
18%
Virtus Entella wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Livorno 1+ goals
73%
Livorno 2+ goals
38%
Livorno 3+ goals
15%
Virtus Entella 1+ goals
70%
Virtus Entella 2+ goals
34%
Virtus Entella 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Livorno (draw refunded)
53%
Virtus Entella (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Livorno at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

Virtus Entella away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.65 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Livorno attack 1.00 + Virtus Entella defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.32

Virtus Entella attack 0.82 + Livorno defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Livorno scores more
39%
level
27%
Virtus Entella scores more
34%

Livorno at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Livorno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Livorno vs Virtus Entella

Livorno and Virtus Entella drew 4-4 in Serie B on January 18, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Armando Picchi in Livorno.