Virtus Entella 3–1 Cesena: Result & Stats | Serie B

Virtus Entella

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cesena

M. Tirelli 83'

L. Cuppone 52'

N. Karic 26'

A. Cerri 77'

2/10/2026

Serie B · Round 24Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Virtus Entella42%

×Draw27%

Cesena31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Virtus EntellaExpected goals in this matchCesena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.14

Virtus Entella

1.38

Cesena

1.14

Virtus Entella creates 21% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.50

creates per match

1.11

1.16

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Virtus Entella

1.50

Cesena

1.11

allows per match

Virtus Entella

1.16

Cesena

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

-0.73scores less than expected

finishing

Virtus Entella+0.00on par

Cesena-0.73scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Entella ↓

Cesena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Virtus Entella or draw

69%

Virtus Entella or Cesena

73%

Draw or Cesena

58%

Winning margin

Virtus Entella wins by 2+

20%

Cesena wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Virtus Entella 1+ goals

75%

Virtus Entella 2+ goals

40%

Virtus Entella 3+ goals

16%

Cesena 1+ goals

68%

Cesena 2+ goals

32%

Cesena 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)

58%

Cesena (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Entella at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.16 · 8 matches

Cesena away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Entella attack 1.50 + Cesena defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.38

Cesena attack 1.11 + Virtus Entella defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Virtus Entella scores more

42%

level

27%

Cesena scores more

31%

Virtus Entella at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Virtus Entella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

N. Karic

Virtus Entella · M

8.2

Match Events

9'

26'

46'

46'

46'

G. Castrovilli← M. Olivieri

46'

T. Berti← M. Francesconi

52'

L. Cuppone

63'

Niccolo Squizzato

63'

T. Corazza← G. Frabotta

64'

T. Del Lungo← L. Parodi

64'

F. Mezzoni← D. Bariti

71'

Massimiliano Mangraviti

71'

G. Vrioni← S. Bastoni

72'

Francesco Mezzoni

76'

M. Tirelli← L. Cuppone

77'

A. Cerri↳ A. Ciofi

83'

M. Tirelli↳ N. Karic

88'

R. Turicchia← A. Debenedetti

88'

M. Nichetti← N. Squizzato

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VirtusCesena

Overview

34%Possession66%

11Total Shots17

0.82Expected Goals (xG)1.61

5Corners5

12Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots17

5On Target2

4Off Target10

2Blocked5

8Inside Box9

3Outside Box8

Passing

34%Possession66%

290Total Passes573

211Accurate Passes481

73%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

-2.03Goals Prevented-2.03

Discipline

12Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2