Cesena 1–1 Virtus Entella: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cesena

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Virtus Entella

C. Shpendi 81' (pen)

A. Franzoni 90'

8/30/2025

Serie B · Round 2Stadio Dino Manuzzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Cesena48%

×Draw25%

Virtus Entella27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CesenaExpected goals in this matchVirtus Entella

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.09

Cesena

1.54

Virtus Entella

1.09

Cesena creates 41% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

1.53

creates per match

0.91

1.27

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Cesena

1.53

Virtus Entella

0.91

allows per match

Cesena

1.27

Virtus Entella

1.56

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

-0.48scores less than expected

finishing

Cesena-0.42scores less

Virtus Entella-0.48scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena ↓

Virtus Entella →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cesena or draw

73%

Cesena or Virtus Entella

75%

Draw or Virtus Entella

52%

Winning margin

Cesena wins by 2+

24%

Virtus Entella wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cesena 1+ goals

79%

Cesena 2+ goals

45%

Cesena 3+ goals

20%

Virtus Entella 1+ goals

66%

Virtus Entella 2+ goals

30%

Virtus Entella 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cesena (draw refunded)

64%

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.27 · 9 matches

Virtus Entella away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.56 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena attack 1.53 + Virtus Entella defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.54

Virtus Entella attack 0.91 + Cesena defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cesena scores more

48%

level

25%

Virtus Entella scores more

27%

Cesena at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cesena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

M. Mangraviti

Cesena · D

7.7

Match Events

8'

Gianluca Frabotta

37'

Andrea Tiritiello

44'

Tommaso Berti

58'

T. Fumagalli← F. Russo

64'

Francesco Mezzoni

68'

R. Celia← G. Frabotta

68'

M. Francesconi← S. Bastoni

77'

Massimiliano MangravitiPenalty confirmed

78'

Ivan Marconi

79'

M. Dalla Vecchia← N. Karic

80'

D. Bariti← F. Mezzoni

80'

A. Debenedetti← B. Guiu

81'

C. ShpendiPenalty

87'

M. Olivieri← J. Blesa

88'

T. Arrigoni← T. Berti

88'

A. Boccadamo← L. Parodi

90'

A. Franzoni↳ M. Dalla Vecchia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CesenaVirtus

Overview

50%Possession50%

13Total Shots9

8Corners2

15Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots9

2On Target1

7Off Target6

4Blocked2

9Inside Box5

4Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

340Total Passes368

274Accurate Passes302

81%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls9

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0

Serie B: Cesena 1–1 Virtus Entella

Cesena and Virtus Entella drew 1-1 in Serie B on August 30, 2025.

Goals: C. Shpendi (81' pen), A. Franzoni (90').

Cesena controlled possession (50%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadio Dino Manuzzi in Cesena.

Cesena vs Virtus Entella — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Cesena 1–1 Virtus Entella